Finance Chief says caution needed when considering economy's full-year forecast

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Hong Kong’s economy recorded its strongest growth in nearly five years in the first quarter of this year. Financial Secretary Paul Chan said the sharp increase in investment reflected market optimism about the outlook. As for whether the full-year forecast, to be released in a few days, will be revised upward, he said various factors need to be considered and the matter should be approached with caution.

Hong Kong’s economy grew by an estimated 5.9% year-on-year in the first quarter — the highest in nearly five years.
Compared with the original Budget forecast of 2.5% to 3.5% growth for the whole year, the first-quarter performance has exceeded expectations.

The government’s economic adviser will release the revised full-year growth forecast this Friday. Financial Secretary Paul Chan said whether the forecast will be raised depends on a range of factors, and the matter must be handled prudently.

“The uncertainties ahead are significant — geopolitics is one factor, oil prices are another. In this day and age, with so many unknowns, we never know when a black swan might appear," said Chan.

Regarding the first quarter, Chan said that although Hong Kong is facing trade tensions, the business sector has remained agile and responsive. Moreover, the AI boom has driven strong export growth, and investment growth has also been faster than before.